Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.154961 0.183580 0.217215 0.259982 0.313373 0.378429 4.646279e-01
2025-08-10 0.115527 0.148726 0.191977 0.253519 0.340617 0.462271 6.502115e-01
2025-08-17 0.087201 0.120050 0.166625 0.239563 0.354915 0.537705 8.656224e-01
2025-08-24 0.071244 0.104350 0.155171 0.242503 0.396928 0.676222 1.267237e+00
2025-08-31 0.059062 0.091419 0.144795 0.244827 0.441866 0.849097 1.877142e+00
2025-09-07 0.050069 0.081520 0.136987 0.249921 0.497442 1.084621 2.884032e+00
2025-09-14 0.042930 0.073171 0.129879 0.254732 0.558414 1.387542 4.526124e+00
2025-09-21 0.036244 0.064191 0.119399 0.249495 0.596918 1.678929 6.742219e+00
2025-09-28 0.028741 0.052170 0.100039 0.218015 0.553617 1.699818 7.980354e+00
2025-10-05 0.025508 0.047939 0.096022 0.222491 0.617711 2.174121 1.324146e+01
2025-10-12 0.023242 0.045229 0.094715 0.233968 0.715189 2.938764 2.473508e+01
2025-10-19 0.021085 0.042324 0.092271 0.241816 0.810307 3.890893 4.700298e+01
2025-10-26 0.018997 0.039299 0.089141 0.247930 0.913990 5.206127 9.826055e+01
2025-11-02 0.016792 0.035588 0.083369 0.243605 0.974369 6.473295 1.930308e+02
2025-11-09 0.014663 0.031679 0.076158 0.231671 0.992047 7.541378 3.542027e+02
2025-11-16 0.013370 0.029593 0.073531 0.235636 1.104761 10.138812 1.002790e+03
2025-11-23 0.012224 0.027670 0.070914 0.238829 1.224093 13.672933 3.558781e+03
2025-11-30 0.011285 0.026119 0.069040 0.244571 1.376143 19.136888 2.123448e+04
2025-12-07 0.010448 0.024689 0.067201 0.249927 1.542726 27.067715 3.314272e+05
2025-12-14 0.009513 0.022833 0.063545 0.245344 1.629343 34.756705 2.549749e+07
2025-12-21 0.008213 0.019772 0.055255 0.214860 1.447164 32.097481 1.114196e+08
2025-12-28 0.007694 0.018853 0.054051 0.219570 1.614951 46.154911 NaN
2026-01-04 0.007332 0.018330 0.054097 0.231136 1.887762 74.839627 NaN